The Logic Behind Technical Analysis

Let me first say that I do not now engage in technical analysis; nor, have I ever engaged in technical analysis. I do not believe doing so would be a productive use of my time.
Having said that, I do not claim technical analysis has no predictive value. In fact, I suspect it does have some predictive value. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is flawed. It is based upon the (unwritten) premise that data determines market prices. As Graham so clearly put it in Security Analysis.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is not the only argument against technical analysis. There is also empirical evidence that questions the utility of technical analysis. However, empirical evidence alone is not sufficient to prove technical analysis has no predictive power. If most knuckleball pitchers had limited success, the knuckleball might be an inherently ineffective pitch, or there might be a better way to throw it. The same is true of technical analysis.
Technical analysis is logically valid. Not only is it possible that some form of technical analysis might have predictive power; I would argue it necessarily follows from the above assumptions that some form of technical analysis must have predictive power.

So, why don't I use technical analysis? I believe fundamental analysis is a far more powerful too. In fact, I believe fundamental analysis is so much more powerful that one ought not to spend any time on technical analysis that could instead be spent on fundamental analysis. I also believe there is more than enough fundamental analysis to keep an investor occupied; so, he shouldn't devote any time to technical analysis. Personally, I feel I am much better suited to fundamental analysis than I am to technical analysis.

Of course, there is no reason why this argument should hold any weight with you. I also believe there is sufficient empirical evidence to support the idea that fundamental analysis is a far more powerful tool than technical analysis.
Even though I believe there must be some form of technical analysis that does have predictive power, the mental model of investing which I have constructed does not allow for such a form of technical analysis. In other words: logically, there must be an effective form of technical analysis, but practically, I pretend there isn't.

Why? Because I believe that's the most useful model. One should adopt the most useful model not the most honest model. I'm willing to pretend technical analysis does not work, even though I know some form of it must work.
Really, this isn't all that strange. In science, I'm willing to pretend there are random events, even though I know there must not be random events. In math, I'm willing to pretend zero is a number, even though I know it must not be a number. A model with random events is useful. In most circumstances, a refusal to allow for random events would be harmful rather than helpful. The model with random events is simpler and more workable. The situation is much the same with zero. It isn't a number. To include zero as a number, you would have to put aside the principles of arithmetic. So, we don't do that. In school, you were taught that zero is a number, but that there are certain things you must never do with zero. You accepted that, because it was a simple, workable model.

I propose you do much the same in the case of technical analysis. You should recognize the logical validity of technical analysis, but create a mental model of investing in which technical analysis has no utility whatsoever.

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